Six months into 2026 the UK wholesale energy market looks dramatically different from where it sat 18 months ago. Wholesale gas, the single biggest input cost for UK businesses on both their gas bill and their electricity bill, is trading 18% below this point last year, but electricity remains volatile thanks to constrained generation margins and a faster-than-expected uptick in industrial demand.
For UK SMEs sitting on a fixed contract that ends between now and Q1 2027, the next six months represent the best renewal window in three years. Here's how we're advising customers to play it.
Wholesale gas: the headline number
NBP day-ahead gas closed last week at 78p/therm, well off the 220p/therm peak of October 2024 and 18% below this point in 2025. LNG inventories across NW Europe sit at 91% of capacity, with weather forecasts pointing to a milder-than-average winter.
What this means for businesses: gas-fixed contracts taken out in the next 60 days will likely set a multi-year low. Customers with renewal dates in Q4 2026 should be running quotes now and locking ahead of their formal expiry.
Wholesale electricity: more complicated
Wholesale electricity is harder to read. The headline day-ahead price of £74/MWh looks attractive, but the forward curve through Winter 2026/27 sits 22% higher reflecting tight generation margins and continued retirement of legacy CCGT capacity.
Practical takeaway: 12-month fixes are unusually cheap right now. 24-month and 36-month fixes carry a notable premium that some customers may want to take to lock in budget certainty.
What we're telling customers
Three rules of thumb our procurement desk is operating under:
1. If your contract ends in the next 6 months, get quotes today. 12-month fixes are within striking distance of 5-year lows.
2. If you can stomach the 22% premium, 24-month fixes hedge against the Winter 2026/27 risk.
3. If you have appetite for flexibility, a basket purchasing strategy via a TPI can outperform a flat fix, but only at scale (typically £250k+ annual spend).
How to position your renewal
We're running personalised market briefings for every customer with a contract ending in the next 12 months. The briefing is free, runs the live wholesale data against your actual consumption profile, and gives you a concrete recommendation rather than generic market commentary.
Alex Carter
Head of Procurement, Scottish Prime Energy
Part of the Scottish Prime Energy procurement team, 500,000+ UK businesses switched, £150M+ saved.